When Napoleon, with the intention of cutting Britain's communication axis to India, marched on Egypt and conquered it, he did not imagine that this same attack, two centuries later, would turn this land into one of the poles of ancient tourism in Asia. The homeland of the pharaohs and the land of the three pyramids, with its own mysteries, has always been attractive for the people of various Eastern and Western nations. But Egypt's beautiful cities have not always followed a smooth path in attracting tourists, and the tourism industry in Egypt has been accompanied by challenges.
The beginning of tourism and travel to Egypt
Earlier we referred to Napoleon's campaign in Egypt with the intention of competing with Britain. For Napoleon, the conquest of Egypt or the Ottoman Empire was only a tool for confronting Britain. But this extensive campaign unintentionally led to the identification of Egypt and to drawing the attention of European archaeologists to it. Napoleon had brought with him on this journey a delegation of scientists and archaeologists, so that it would represent the peak of the glory of Western civilization. The activities of this Western delegation in Egypt led to the discovery of the Rosetta Stone and, subsequently, to the establishment of the discipline of Egyptology.
Gradually in the nineteenth century more archaeologists from Europe became inclined toward Egyptology. With the display of the wonders of ancient Egypt in the museums of European countries, people too showed a special interest in this land. Ultimately Egypt became one of the most popular tourist attractions for Europeans in the twentieth century.
The trend of increase in Egypt's annual number of tourists moved forward with sluggish growth until the late 1990s, until from the middle of the 2000s this trend took on exponential growth that, despite all the challenges, continues to this day.
The importance of tourism in Egypt
Traveling and trips to Egypt among Arab countries, and of course African countries, have a long history. For this reason Egypt's tourism industry has become one of this country's important economic pillars.
As you see in the chart below, in 2005 — which coincided with the start of exponential growth of the tourism industry in Egypt — Egypt's revenue from tourism and travel was more than 15 percent of this country's total gross domestic product (GDP). Although challenges such as the Arab Spring, political changes and unrest, and the outbreak of the coronavirus had brought this share to its lowest level, from 2021 this trend has again become increasing.
The next chart too shows the total share of tourism in GDP in Egypt and also presents a forecast of it on the 2028 horizon.
The tourism industry always has a direct and indirect impact on job creation, and Egypt is no exception to this rule. After the subsiding of Egypt's political unrest in 2017, from 2019 the growth of direct employment produced by tourism finally takes on an increasing trend, one of the most important causes of which is the increase in the number of Egypt's tourists in these years. This trend, even in the years of the coronavirus outbreak, did not experience a striking decline and after that has again begun to increase.
Finally one must refer to revenue obtained from tourism in Egypt and examine the trends in it. From the 1990s to the mid-2000s we do not see much change in revenues, but from 2004 this trend takes on exponential growth until in 2010 it reaches its peak. 2011 for Egypt was a fateful year in the Arab Spring and revolutions, but this revolution brought with it unrest that led to a decline in the number of Egypt's tourists and, consequently, a decline in the revenue of Egypt's tourism industry.
Political unrest in Egypt continues until 2017, which again shows itself in these same two indicators. From 2017 greater stability prevails in Egypt and until 2019 the land of the three pyramids benefits from an exponential increase in tourism revenue in Egypt. The outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020 again numbers a bitter year for Egypt's tourism industry, which of course ends with a happy ending in the post-COVID period.
The impact of the Arab Spring and domestic unrest on Egypt's tourism
2011 for many Arab Muslim countries was a fateful and important year. People's prolonged protests for political and social reforms in their countries were intensifying, but little change was being achieved. Until people's slogans shifted from "reform the regime" toward "overthrow the regime," and this meant moving toward revolution. In these conditions only a spark was enough to explode this powder keg, and this spark was struck. The two countries of Egypt and Libya were at the head of the protests, and the result of it was the overthrow of the two autocratic rulers of these two countries, Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi.
Political and social instabilities in the MENA region (the Middle East and North Africa) had a negative impact on many economic indicators, among the most important of which was inbound tourism. Tourists do not want to leave their own country for a country in which there is no security.
As is seen in the chart below, Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia and Morocco had the greatest drop in the number of tourists and in revenue obtained from tourism in 2011 relative to before the revolution. Also, the more the number of foreign tourists of the MENA region fell, in Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE the number of tourists and tourism revenue increased sharply.
In the chart below a comparison has been made between the nationality of Egypt's foreign tourists in the year before the Arab Spring and after it. Europeans and then Arabs had the largest share among tourists, but this statistic faced a sharp drop, of which of course the greatest fall related to the number of American tourists in Egypt.
The impact of the decline in tourism in Egypt in the year of the revolution can be measured in three economic indicators:
- Tourist spending (tourists' spending on recreational and commercial matters excluding educational matters)
- Tourism's share of GDP
- And tourism's share of job creation
Foreign tourists' spending in Egypt (visitor exports) in 2010 had 6.9 percent growth relative to the previous year, but in the year of the revolution was accompanied by a 27 percent fall, although with the situation becoming more stable this indicator took on a trend with mild growth. This increase–sharp decrease–mild increase trend is also observable in the two other indicators.
After the Arab Spring, unrest in Egypt continued and this country again witnessed a change of regime and political authority. These instabilities continued for several years in the land of the pharaohs until from 2017 we gradually witnessed political stability and sustainability in this country and, consequently, tourist statistics in Egypt and the economic indicator related to visiting Egypt's tourist attractions increased.
The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Egypt's tourism industry
At the beginning of 2020 the world became involved in the coronavirus outbreak and home quarantine began in most countries. Naturally one of the industries that was most damaged because of international movement restrictions was the tourism industry. In this regard Egypt's tourist attractions too were not spared from this blight.
2019 for the land of the pharaohs was a fruitful year in the field of visits to Egypt's tourist sites. In this year, with 13 million tourists and about 13 billion dollars of revenue obtained from tourism, a new record was registered for this country in the field of tourism.
In the first year of the coronavirus outbreak, however, this statistic faced a seventy percent decline and only 3.5 million tourists traveled to this country and its revenue too fell to 4 billion dollars. The reduction of coronavirus restrictions alongside Egypt's tourist-attraction policies compensated for this fall within three years, such that in the first half of 2023 more than seven million tourists have visited Egypt's tourist sites. It is forecast that this figure will reach the record-breaking number of 15 million at the end of the year.
The future of the tourism industry in Egypt
Given the large jump of the tourism industry in the two post-COVID years, Egypt in attracting tourists has not only reached the best time before COVID but has even improved its records, and this compensation of loss can return Egypt again to the track of tourism development.
This country plans to increase this upward trend of attracting tourists with its new strategies by 25 to 30 percent every year and to reach the figure of 30 million tourists by the 2028 horizon. To attain this goal Egypt's governing authority has pursued various attraction policies: attracting 20 billion dollars of investment for tourism, increasing hotels' capacity from 215 thousand to 500 thousand rooms, easing and liberalizing the visa-issuance process for many countries, improving the structure and service delivery of historical museums, reopening this country's largest museum after ten years, developing the ticketing system of Egypt's tourist attractions in electronic form, expanding this country's air fleet in order to transport tourists more quickly and better, and so on.
In the table below, statistics on the number of tourist overnight stays in Egypt in recent years and also a forecast for the 2025 horizon, and alongside it the probable increase, have been mentioned. According to this economic forecast, by 2025, thirty-five billion dollars will be tourism's share of Egypt's GDP. It is also forecast that by the 2028 horizon, which is the same target year of planning for Egypt, with a mild upward slope 2.2 million jobs will be created through tourism, and with tourism's share of Egypt's GDP a steeper upward slope will by the same year reach the unprecedented figure of 45.6 billion dollars.
The endless challenges of Egypt's tourism industry
The tourism industry, like any other industry, has challenges and ups and downs of its own, but the art is not in ignoring or complaining about these problems, but in seeing them logically and creating opportunity from the heart of threats. The ups and downs of tourism in the ancient land of Egypt are among the best files for examining this matter. Tourism in Egypt is threatened once by the Arab revolutions, another time by domestic unrest, it comes to be the turn of COVID as well, and finally the regional challenge of the Israel–Palestine battle. As was examined, these challenges have no end and almost always leave their negative impact, but it is the intelligent policymaker who, by drawing on tested experiences, must catch the desired fish from the heart of this stormy sea.
Sources
https://www.statista.com/statistics/971622/egypt-tourism-expenditure/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1010339/direct-contribution-travel-tourism-employment-egypt/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1317338/contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-gdp-in-egypt/
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/egypt/visitor-arrivals
https://www.worlddata.info/africa/egypt/tourism.php
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1010324/egypt-real-contribution-travel-tourism-gdp-egypt/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_campaign_in_Egypt_and_Syria
Machine-translated from Persian by Namafar; the Persian original is authoritative. Read the original in Persian